Projected Week 10 NFL DFS ownership percentage, advice for DraftKings, FanDuel contestsSporting News — firstname.lastname@example.org (Sporting News)
It’s cold. It’s getting dark early. Leaves are falling all over your yard, and you don’t have a mower to pick them up. The good news: You still have football. We now have nine weeks of data to help inform our Week 10 NFL DFS decisions, and while those surface stats are helpful, the public tends to overvalue basic numbers like yards and TDs. This creates solid buy-low opportunities over the next few weeks as sharp daily fantasy football players fade guys likely to regress and target guys who are due to produce more. By looking at key DFS ownership projections from RotoGrinders, we can find the players who can help/hurt your lineups heading into the Week 10 slate of games.
Differentiation is especially important in GPPs, as hitting on the right low-owned players can vault you above your competition in a hurry.
Week 10 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Matt Ryan, Falcons @ Saints (2.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 3.0% on DraftKings). I wouldn’t go this route in cash games as the Saints defense is a far cry from the sieve they were a year or two ago. They are well above average at getting pressure on the QB and with Ryan returning from a lower-body injury, the Falcons signal caller getting through the game unscathed is far from guaranteed. However, the Saints figure to put a big number on the board offensively, and Ryan still has the weapons to post big stat lines in catch-up mode. Julio Jones, Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley all have some appeal, despite the chance the Jones sees heavy coverage from Marshon Lattimore. If that does look to be the case, it would up the appeal for Ridley in a game that figures to see the Falcons throwing a ton.
Mitchell Trubisky, Bears vs. Lions (6.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.9% on DraftKings). It’s hard to believe that this will hold true, but we currently have Trubisky expected to be the sixth-most popular QB on the slate (on both sites). With how the Bears offense has looked this season, I can’t get behind investing in a QB that the Chicago coaching staff doesn’t even have faith in. On top of that, Trubisky hasn’t been able to tack on points with his legs like he was last year – he hasn’t run for more than 15 yards in a single start this season. He just doesn’t possess the upside we want for tournaments at this stage, and while it can be beneficial to go off the board in GPPs, this one is a little too far out there for me.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Josh Allen (@ Browns), Daniel Jones (@ Jets)
Notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Aaron Rodgers (vs. Panthers)
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Week 10 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
Damien Williams, Chiefs @ Titans (4.6% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.8% on DraftKings). Since LeSean McCoy’s lost fumble in a prime-time game against Green Bay, it has been the Damien Williams show in the KC backfield. Ball security has followed McCoy for a little while now, in large part due to the ridiculous nature in which he sometimes holds the ball, giving Williams a path to more work. In Week 9, McCoy played on just 11% of snaps while Darrell Williams was up to 18%. A lot of Williams’ production came on one long run, but things should get a little easier for him with Patrick Mahomes back in the fold. If Williams can hold onto that kind of snap count, he is far too cheap for Week 10 and belongs in GPP builds in a game the Chiefs should control.
Devin Singletary, Bills @ Browns (9.6% pOWN on FanDuel, 18.4% on DraftKings). I like Singletary as a player and have been overweight on him a handful of times already this year – that finally payed off last weekend, but his price is coming up and with the field now on board, I’ll likely swerve away from this one. The biggest thing Singletary has going for him is that regardless of game flow, he’s likely to be involved. He’s shown chops as a pass-catcher – a huge plus for Josh Allen given the lack of weapons beyond John Brown and Cole Beasley – and finally got more involved on the ground last weekend. This isn’t a spot where I expect the Bills to pack on points, so I’ll be underweight (especially on DraftKings).
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: David Johnson (@ Buccaneers), Todd Gurley (@ Steelers)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Nick Chubb (vs. Bills), Joe Mixon (@ Ravens), Ronald Jones in GPPs (vs. Cardinals)
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Week 10 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley, Falcons @ Saints (3.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 1.8% on DraftKings). This was already alluded to in the Matt Ryan writeup, but Ridley isn’t getting any love this week and by the looks of it, he should be. He’d be further boosted by any additional coverage the Saints throw at Julio, a guy they’ve made a point to try to slow in years past. With the receiving corps dwindled a bit by Mohamed Sanu’s absence, I’d imagine the Saints will make Ridley and Hooper beat them before allowing Jones to run wild. Ridley was already due for a target bump with Sanu out of town, but in a game that figures to see the Falcons throwing often, there is a very real ceiling here. Ridley is also very affordable across the industry.
D.J. Moore, Panthers @ Packers (15.0% pOWN on FanDuel, 15.8% on DraftKings). Moore was all the rage last week and seems to be carrying that same level of interest into Week 10. The matchup isn’t nearly as good. He’s likely to do battle with Jaire Alexander quite a bit on Sunday, a clear downtick to his floor and ceiling. It’s also clear that the Packers are a much easier team to beat via the ground, where the Panthers happen to have one of the most dynamic backs in the league. Even among Panthers WRs, I’d give the edge to Curtis Samuel, so I’m not going to be anywhere near this one at this ownership. Moore is currently projected to be among the top five most popular WRs on both major sites.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Tyler Boyd (@ Ravens), Larry Fitzgerald (@ Buccaneers), Zach Pascal (vs. Dolphins), Albert Wilson (@ Colts), Sammy Watkins (@ Titans)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Jarvis Landry (vs. Bills), Robby Anderson (vs. Giants)
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Week 10 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
Gerald Everett, Rams @ Steelers (3.9% pOWN on FanDuel, 4.0% on DraftKings). Mike Gesicki almost made the cut here, although I think he’s generating some buzz heading into the weekend and could conceivably be one of the five or six most popular TEs. Enter Everett, who should benefit from Brandin Cooks’ absence – I don’t think Josh Reynolds will necessarily come in and replace Cooks from a snaps standpoint, leading to some extra two-TE sets against a Steelers defense that has struggled to contain the position. Everett also has more big play ability than most TEs and especially TEs priced in this range. Like Gesicki, Everett’s price hasn’t quite caught up to his level of usage.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Mike Gesicki (@ Colts)
Notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Jack Doyle (vs. Dolphins)